7 November 2011 A World to Win News Service. Following is a translation of an article that appeared on the Web site Aurora Roja, of the Revolutionary Organization of Mexico. (http://aurora-roja.blogspot.com ). The footnotes and illustrations are available in the online version.
The main causes of global warming are the use of oil, gas and coal, as well as deforestation.
The planet is getting warmer because of the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. The most important of these is carbon dioxide (CO2), produced by burning fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. The second most important cause is deforestation.
Carbon dioxide is a naturally-produced gas. For example, human beings and animals in general inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide. The problem is that the more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, the more the atmosphere traps the sun's heat which otherwise would be radiated out into space. This makes the planet heat up in the same way that a greenhouse captures the sun's heat and heats up inside, although this effect is the product of a different process.
Furthermore, trees and plants in general absorb carbon dioxide and give off oxygen, so that the loss of forests and the destruction of other vegetation also contributes to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global warming.
The amount of carbon dioxide emitted every year went up by about eighty percent between 1970 and 2004, and the total amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere during this period increased by seventy percent. In addition to carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases include methane (produced by the use of coal and natural gas, the burning of biomass (organic matter), rubbish incineration and other factors), nitrous oxide (also produced by burning fossil fuels and hi-tech farming) and gases containing halogens (the result of various industrial processes and intensive agriculture).
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing every year, from 316 ppm (parts per million) in 1959 to 399 ppm in 2010. In 1988 it surpassed 350 ppm, the level that many scientists consider the limit if drastic climate changes are to be avoided. Worse, the average annual increase more than doubled in this period.
These increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are due to the way capitalism has industrialized the world, in a manner that is highly dependent on the use of fossil fuels because that is the most profitable energy source. Three-quarters of all the energy produced in the world comes from oil, natural gas and coal. The main sources of greenhouse gases are the production of energy (25.9 percent); industry (19.4 percent); burning down forests to clear land (17.4 percent); agriculture, basically intensive, hi-tech agriculture (13.5 percent); transport (13.1 percent); commercial and residential buildings, especially because of fossil fuel heating (7.9 percent) and rubbish (2.8 percent).
The economies of the imperialist countries (the so-called "developed countries") are responsible for the majority of global warming, and much of the greenhouse gases produced in the rest of the world are the result of the capitalist production systems encouraged by capital investment from these "rich" countries. In the last 50 years about three-quarters (75 percent) of the accumulated greenhouse gases have been produced in the industrialized countries that represent only 20 percent of the world's population, while the remaining quarter has been produced in the oppressed countries that are home to 80 percent of the world's population. The United States has barely four percent of the world's population and yet it emits 25 percent of the carbon dioxide and 36 percent of all greenhouse gases.
The planet is already getting warmer
These factors have already brought about global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC ), which unites the efforts of a large number of scientists appointed by governments under the auspices of the United Nations concluded, in its 2007 report, that "the warming of the climate system is unequivocal [beyond reasonable doubt], as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level."
Further, global warming has accelerated during the last decades. "For the global average, warming in the last century has occurred in two phases, from the 1910s to the 1940s (.035° C), and more strongly from the 1970s to the present (0.55° C). An increasing rate of warming has been taking place over the last 25 years, and 11 of the 12 warmest years on record occurred in the past 12 years."
Climate change is already producing devastation
Global warming is already causing major destruction. The IPCC report concludes,"Many natural systems, on all continents and in some oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes, especially by rising temperatures." During the last few decades, the number of heat waves has increased, more regions are experiencing droughts, and, paradoxically, because of the same climatological disequilibrium, there has also been an increase in the number of storms and hurricanes resulting in flooding. According to the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in the US, over the past 30 years climate change has caused four times as many natural disasters than in the first 75 years of the twentieth century.
It is estimated that global warming is already killing 15,000 people every year due to the increasing frequency and severity of droughts, storms, floods, heat waves and parasitical diseases. Natural disasters are already killing 60,000 people, and many millions more die every year, according to the World Health Organization, due to causes that global warming and other forms of the destruction of the environment have intensified and will intensify further. This includes the death of approximately 1.2 million people because of the contamination of the air, 2.2 million because of diarrhoea due to the lack of clean water, and 3.5 million due to malnutrition.
Sea levels are already rising, and the rate of that rise has gone up sharply in recent decades because of the melting of glaciers, ice caps and polar ice, leading to more severe flooding in coastal areas and islands. Many polar species face extinction. The melting of glaciers is also eliminating important sources of fresh water in various densely populated regions.
The worst is yet to come
But the worst is yet to come. The IPCC states, "If greenhouse gases continue to grow at their actual rhythm or a greater one, warming will be intensified and many changes will take place in the global climate system during the 21st century." Its estimates of temperature increases in this century vary according to various presuppositions, but they range from a minimum of 1.1º C and a maximum of 6.4º C temperatures above the already high levels of 1980-1999. In particular, given the continuing intensive use of fossil fuels and rapid economic development, even if more efficient technologies are put to use, the IPCC projects a temperature rise of between 2.4 and 6.4º C by the end of the century, with the most probable increase being 4º C.
Due to pressures from the governments involved, the IPCC's estimates are conservative. In 2001 they predicted a temperature increase of between 0.15° and 0.30° over the next five years, but the reality exceeded their predictions – the actual increase was 0.33°. An article in the prestigious scholarly review Science indicates that the last time atmospheric carbon levels were anything like those observed today, 15-20 million years ago, global temperatures rose to between 3 and 6° C hotter than today and sea levels rose to between 25 and 40 metres higher than now. This suggests that even if the present level of carbon in the atmosphere were stabilized – which is already impossible – temperatures would rise to the upper levels of what the IPCC estimates could occur if greenhouse gases were to rise.
The coming planetary disaster
The climate change triggered by world capitalist industrialization is already causing disasters and will bring more, although it is difficult to predict them with scientific certainty. One reason is the uncertainties involved in predicting the magnitude of temperature change, both because of the complexity of climatic processes and because various human factors are also involved: the rate of economic growth, population growth and above all what measures are taken (or not) to abandon the use of fossil fuels and stop deforestation. Another reason is that although global warming is a major danger in itself, it is not the only ecological problem. Global capitalist production is setting off other environmental crises and it is difficult to predict the interaction between various harmful changes. It is even possible that a chain reaction could occur such that ecological destruction could become more intense and widespread than the projected damage caused by global warming itself. For a multifaceted analysis of the ecological crises the world is undergoing, we recommend the special issue of Revolution on this subject (issue no. 199, revcom.us). What is clear in any case is that today's capitalist production set-up is destroying the global ecological balance and threatening the future of many species, including the human race.
Although there were far higher temperatures millions of years ago, before the existence of human beings, one important difference with today's world is that the warming is taking place at a fast rate, due to capitalist industrialization, so that species will not have a chance to evolve to adapt to these rapid changes in the environment, potentially destroying entire ecosystems. Even the IPCC's conservative estimates indicate that a temperature jump of 2º C (over the prevailing temperatures in 1980-1999) would put 30 percent of the planet's species at risk of extinction, and a leap of 4º could bring about the extinction of 40 percent of the world's species. A change of that magnitude would have incalculable effects on the environment and the earth's ability to sustain its present human population.
James Hansen, chief climatologists for NASA (the American space flight agency) has provided an eloquent and terrifying projection of the potential changes from global warming: if decisive measures to "defuse the global warming time bomb" are not taken soon, "it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas produced in burning fossil fuels, to a level that prevents the climate system from passing tipping points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity's control... more warming is already 'in-the-pipeline', delayed only by the great inertia of the world ocean. And climate is nearing dangerous tipping points. Elements of a 'perfect storm', a global cataclysm, are assembled.
"Climate can reach points such that amplifying feedbacks spur large rapid changes. Arctic
sea ice is a current example. Global warming initiated sea ice melt, exposing darker ocean that absorbs more sunlight, melting more ice. As a result, without any additional greenhouse gases, the Arctic soon will be ice-free in the summer.
"In my opinion, if emissions follow a business-as-usual scenario, sea level rise of at least two meters is likely this century. Hundreds of millions of people would become refugees. No stable shoreline would be re-established in any time frame that humanity can conceive.
"Species will be pushed off the planet, if warming continues. Other species attempt to migrate, but as some are extinguished their interdependencies can cause ecosystem collapse. Mass extinctions, of more than half the species on the planet, have occurred several times when the Earth warmed as much as expected if greenhouse gases continue to increase. Biodiversity recovered, but it required hundreds of thousands of years.
"The disturbing conclusion, documented in a paper I have written with several of the world’s leading climate experts, is that the safe level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is no more than 350 ppm (parts per million) and it may be less. Carbon dioxide amount is already 385 ppm and rising about 2 ppm per year. Stunning corollary: the oft-stated goal to keep global warming less than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) is a recipe for global disaster, not salvation. These conclusions are based on paleoclimate data showing how the Earth responded to past levels of greenhouse gases and on observations showing how the world is responding to today’s carbon dioxide amount. The consequences of continued increase of greenhouse gases extend far beyond extermination of species and future sea level rise.
"Arid subtropical climate zones are expanding poleward. Already an average expansion
of about 250 miles has occurred, affecting the southern United States, the Mediterranean region, Australia and southern Africa. Forest fires and drying-up of lakes will increase further unless carbon dioxide growth is halted and reversed. Mountain glaciers are the source of fresh water for hundreds of millions of people. These glaciers are receding world-wide, in the Himalayas, Andes and Rocky Mountains. They will disappear, leaving their rivers as trickles in late summer and fall, unless the growth of carbon dioxide is reversed.
"Coral reefs, the rainforest of the ocean, are home for one-third of the species in the sea. Coral reefs are under stress for several reasons, including warming of the ocean, but especially because of ocean acidification, a direct effect of added carbon dioxide. Ocean life dependent on carbonate shells and skeletons is threatened by dissolution as the ocean becomes more acid."
What can be done to prevent this disaster?
There has been much controversy about the magnitude of the changes necessary to prevent this disaster. Partly this is because of a scientific problem: what we're seeing today, a rapid warming process and the extensive contamination of the globe by the modern capitalist process of production, has never existed before in all of the Earth's history. A much bigger source of confusion is the disinformation being spread by the defenders of the economic and political interests of today's system, both powerful economic forces that minimize the problem of global warming because they need to maximize their short-term profits through the use of fossil fuels, and the political representatives of this system that give nice speeches about the need to stop global warming while trying to create the illusion that something is being done about it, when in reality the problem is getting worse and worse, faster and faster.
There is a basic consensus among scientists that global warming is real, that it represents grave dangers and that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced. The IPCC concludes, "The stabilization of CO2 emissions at their present levels will lead to a constant increment in CO2 levels in the atmosphere during the 21st century and beyond." It should be emphasized that these emissions are not stabilizing but rather increasing from year to year at an accelerating rate. There is overwhelming scientific evidence that greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced.? The question is: How?
One of the most "optimistic" estimates, one that is in line with the economic and political interests of the system comes from a recent study by the United Nations Environment Programme arguing that an annual level of greenhouse gas emissions at the equivalent of 39 to 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (a figure obtained by converting other greenhouse gases to their CO2 equivalents) in 2020 would very likely suffice to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. This would mean a reduction of only 4-9 gigatonnes from the 2009 level of 48 gigatonnes, or in other words, a 8-19 percent drop from present levels. But they have to admit that as things are going now, emissions will probably reach 56 gigatonnes in 2020. The study was unabashedly published for the harmful and absurd political purpose of demonstrating that the Copenhagen climate summit negotiations could have achieved a serious advance. The study seems to represent a dangerous underestimation of the problem – but even the conference failed to agree even on that far too limited goal.
It is commonly accepted in scientific circles that what is really needed is a reduction of world-wide greenhouse gas emissions by about half. Other studies, including one by NASA scientist Hansen indicate that avoiding major climatic changes would require lowering atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 350 parts per million, a level already surpassed in 1988, as said above, and one that would require even greater emission reductions.
There is accumulating evidence that drastic greenhouse gas emission reductions are required. A basic problem is that once carbon is liberated, it remains in the atmosphere for a long time, so that we have not yet seen the full effects of the emissions of the past and present. The study in the magazine Science cited above used bubbles of ancient air trapped in ice to analyse the composition of the atmosphere with a margin of error of only 14 ppm, with the surprising conclusion, cited above, that the carbon dioxide levels 15-20 million years ago, similar to those of today, produced temperatures of 3-6° C higher than today, changes that would be catastrophic for the world's ecosystems and human society. The study also demonstrated a very close relationship between carbon levels and temperature changes (and sea levels).
A study published in Nature in 2006 analysing a period 55 million years ago when there was rapid climate change associated with large-scale greenhouse gas emissions discovered that the Arctic experienced incredible temperatures – more than 23° C, far warmer than anything that has been projected by the climate models now in common use. The three dozen authors who participated in the study concluded that these models may fail to take into account major factors and may seriously underestimate the possible effects. Another scientific study analysing climate changes in the Middle Ages concluded that the retroactive effect of warming, which actually triggers the liberation of more carbon dioxide, could lead to temperature rises of 15 to 78 percent or more, far above the IPCC's estimates.
One of the most stunning of the recent studies, carried out by the climatologists Ken Caldeira and Damon Matthews, using the sophisticated model of the planetary environmental system developed by the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institute, found that to stop global warming carbon emissions basically have to be reduced to zero. Most previous studies had focused on how much emissions should be reduced to stabilize the level of carbon in the atmosphere, without taking into account that the cumulative effects of carbon emissions mean that a stable level of carbon does not mean a stable climate. By studying the impact of different emissions levels over the next 500 years, they found that each emission produces a warming effect, so that only by reducing emissions to zero can the warming already under way be halted. According to their model, even if emissions were reduced to zero, plants and seas would gradually absorb the carbon but temperatures would remain high for 500 years after emissions stopped. More emissions, even at a lower level than today, would worsen the situation for centuries.
Only a radical change in the system of production can save the planet
Beyond the legitimate scientific debates, only representatives of a system basically driven by the necessity for immediate profits, with a deep disregard for the future of the planet and its living things, including human beings, could continue to keep their foot on the accelerator as the planet heads to the brink of a cliff with the vain hope that just maybe the abyss into which we will fall isn't so deep after all. That exactly describes the system we live under, the world capitalist-imperialist system. Its representatives keep babbling about ecology, sustainable development, etc., even as each imperialist power and every bloc of capital hurtles blindly onward in a never-ending race to beat out the competition or die trying, in a dynamic that is at the very heart of the functioning of the capitalist system. The perfect illustration of the essential nature of this system is that as global warming shrinks the North Pole icecap, the imperialist powers and giant oil corporations have started to fight for control of the Arctic oilfields. All they can see in this ecological disaster is a way to make more profit.
Greenhouse gas emissions keep going up year after year, year after year temperatures increase, year after year the sea levels rise. The irrefutable numbers about the growing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere demonstrate a stark truth: nothing has really been done to stop the accumulation of greenhouse gases and therefore global warming. Not the Kyoto Protocol, nor any UN conference, nor the "carbon credit markets" nor any of their supposed measures.
They haven't done anything and they won't, because stopping global warming would require a total restructuring of today's system of production to drastically cut back on and eventually eliminate the burning of fossil fuels and begin to reforest the planet instead of mercilessly deforesting it. The capitalist system cannot do that because its fundamental law is the competition between different capitals for the highest profits. We cannot continue to live under the system that created this problem and makes it worse with every passing day.
If we really want to save the planet, if we really want to save millions of species from extinction, if we really want to save humanity from a horrible future, what we need to do is make revolution – communist revolution.
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